BCREA Forecast Update - First Quarter 2009

Recessionary Conditions Slow Housing Market   

Vancouver, BC – February 2, 2009. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) Forecast Update for the first quarter of 2009 today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to decline 9 per cent from 68,923 units in 2008 to 62,650 units this year. Residential sales in 2010 are forecast to rebound 8 per cent to 68,000 units. The ten-year average is 82,800 units.

“The global financial crisis and world-wide recession will continue to take their toll on the BC economy this year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “World events have pulled Canada and BC into a recession, where concern for job security and declining net worth are keeping many potential homebuyers on the sidelines.”

"A continuing imbalance between supply and demand will put some additional downward pressure on home prices this year,” added Muir.   

The average MLS® residential price is forecast to decline 13 per cent to $396,600 in 2009. Home prices in the province are expected to be relatively stable in 2010, forecasted to average $389,000.

BC housing starts are forecast to fall 45 per cent to 19,000 units this year as a result of rising inventories, weak consumer demand and tight credit conditions.

Next year is expected to be a year of stabilization in the economy and the housing market. Real GDP growth in the province is forecast to rise a modest 1.5 per cent and job losses in 2009 are expected to give way to some gains in employment in 2010.  

The full BCREA Housing Forecast is available.